Ryan Meili has just released the above video which captures a powerful message about his campaign and what he wants to bring (back) to the province – the NDP’s ability to tell stories that resonate with people.
There are a lot of ways to indicate who has momentum in a leadership race – some more valid than others.
For example, if someone takes the time to watch and engage with a candidate’s social media content, that’s a tangible demonstration of interest in what a candidate has to say. If people open their wallets and donate, that’s a good indication they support a candidate in a very real way. And if you have large numbers of people doing both things, you probably have a lot of momentum.
There are less valid ways to measure momentum (“nomentum”?) – for example, releasing polls without explaining the methodology or the margin of error or even worse, designing the poll to give a candidate the result they want.
Beyond that, polls are notoriously unreliable and getting more unreliable all the time – from Calgary to the UK to Washington DC. There are all kinds of reasons for that but sometimes it comes down to (hypothetically) some middle-aged dude getting a robo-call from a candidate they don’t support and answering that they’re an “18-35 undecided female” so that their true support doesn’t show up when the poll results are released. You get enough people doing that to mess with polling data (or supporters of one candidate hanging up when they hear its a call from another candidate or whatever) and the results become the definition of unreliable.
Because of that, I thought I’d do an analysis of some of the numbers that are out there that do a good job of indicating the real world support for each of the two candidates running for the Leadership of the Sask NDP.
It’s a different race with different dynamics today. But the message that these types of very real metrics send are clear indicators of who, to tie it back to Ryan’s latest video, is telling the best story – the story that people are interested in, the story that people want to engage with, the story that people are excited to hear and want to support.
To be blunt, given what happened in 2013, I firmly believe that the party ignores these metrics at their peril this time around. 🙁
Technically, a better husband would do a better blog post for his wife on their 15th wedding anniversary.
But since this is the anniversary of us doing the legal paperwork in jeans in our living room in Calgary while the anniversary of the day we had our wedding ceremony on the beach in Mexico fifteen years ago is still a month away (plus since we both tend to ignore the legal one anyhow) I don’t feel too bad about letting this one pass (basically) unacknowledged.
This song has a lot of religious imagery and considering we specifically requested a non-religious officiate who only slipped up once at the end of the ceremony when there was a brief sprinkle of rain and he remarked that was just “god showering our love across the earth”, it’s probably not one we would normally think of as one of “our” songs.
But the lyrics still make me think of us getting married on the beach in Mexico fifteen years ago for some reason. (And man, do I ever love Sam Baker as well!)
Most remarkably, we have Nipplegate to thank for YouTube. Co-founder Jawed Karim told USA Today that he was inspired to create the video site in 2005 after not being able to find any footage of the incident online.
It’s also too bad that Timberlake missed an opportunity during his performance at the Super Bowl tonight to make amends as Jackson basically had her career end for what was *his* mistake while he’s gone on to great success in both music and movies.
In the era of #metoo, imagine what it would mean if he’s stopped his performance midway, brought her out, made a heartfelt apology, told all the viewers to go to iTunes and buy “Rhythm Nation 1814” and then they bust out a wicked duet/dance routine to “SexyBack” which ends with her ripping off his codpiece or something. 😉
Apparently the latest research is showing that kids that don’t quite need regular glasses can still benefit from starting with reading glasses which, in turn, reduces their prescription when they do get glasses and also the odds of worse eye problems (glaucoma, etc.) later in life.
This will be the first time we’ve done a two-week all-inclusive and I think it’ll be very luxurious considering a typical one-week vacation often only feels like much less than that since the first day is a travel day, the second day is a decompress/orientation day and then the second last day (for me anyhow) is the “ahh..it’s almost over” sad day and the final day is another travel day. Add in that you might spend a day of your trip doing an excursion of one kind or another and a week goes by *way* too fast! 🙁
We’ll also get to celebrate a milestone birthday for my mom during the time that my parents and my family overlap in Mexico (they’re doing two weeks – one with my sister’s family and then one with mine and then they leave and Shea and the kids and I will have an additional week just for ourselves.)
We are seriously thinking about upgrading to The Grand at Moon Palace for our second week. The Grand is a more high-end part of the property which still allows you access to other areas (but people in other parts can’t go to The Grand without buying day passes) but which has more and better features – a bigger kids’ club, some really unique a la carte restaurants (Lebanese! Peruvian!), bigger rooms, etc.
Pace is looking forward to the FlowRider (the only one in a resort in that area of Mexico that has one apparently) more than me. In fact, I’ve decided that if I go on it, it has to be one of our last days in case I hurt myself. (Correction: I will hurt myself!)
Having two weeks makes it more likely that we’ll do some excursions and I’m especially excited to once again visit Isla Mujeres which was a highlight of our return “honeymoon” trip to Cancun the year after we got married.
It’s a small thing but many reviews on Trip Advisor rave about the high level of service at this resort and I’ve already had a preview – for most of our trips, I’ve sent an email ahead of time to confirm that we’ll need adjoining rooms or make a special request or whatever. I think this might be the first time I’ve not only gotten a timely response but actually had a bit of back and forth correspondence which is a good omen!
I don’t usually do any spa stuff at all-inclusives but since this all-inclusive gives guests “Resort Credits” to spend on various services, Shea and I might have to go for massages at their AWE Spa.
The biggest downside to this resort is the ocean is widely reported to not be very good – lots of seaweed and murky water instead of the beautiful turquoise you expect on a tropical vacation. Luckily, we can take a cab to a sister resort on the Cancun strip and use all their facilities including a beach that looks much better (bringing back memories of staying at Sandos Caracol last year which also had a bad beach but being able to travel to a sister resort a couple times and having some of our best beach days ever!)
If you’re new to the NDP and/or legitimately trying to decide who’s the best choice for Leader out of Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon, the TED Talk that Ryan gave at the University of Regina in 2012 is probably the quickest and easiest way to get a sense of who Ryan is, what he stands for and what his political goals are…
Ryan Meili is far ahead of any candidate in either race in terms of number of individuals donating to his campaign, he is currently out-fundraising his NDP opponent, and he is also the *only* leadership candidate in either race not accepting corporate or union donations.
For that reason, he has to rely solely on donations from individuals. If you would like to donate $5 or $50 or $500 to help support Ryan’s campaign, you can easily do so on his web site. If you donate fifty bucks by midnight on January 31, you even get a free copy of his book!
(I’ve rounded most numbers to make the math easier – and can anyone tell me *why* UA Local 729 donated $521.27? What a strangely precise number – maybe from a “pass the hat” event but even then, how do you end up with $0.27? We don’t even have pennies anymore!)
Anyhow, on to the number crushing… 🙂
RYAN MEILI
TRENT WOTHERSPOON
Total Donors
666
439
_
Total Raised
$130,000
$104,000
Total Raised from Individuals
$130,000
$68,000
Total Raised from Unions
$0
$35,000
Total Raised from Corporations
$0
$1,000
_
Average Donation
$200
$240
Average Donation
(without max donors)
$137
$193
Average Donation
(without max or
near-max donors >$2500)
$115
$180
_
Number of Donors Under $250
597
353
Number of Donors Over $250
69
86
_
Number of Max $ Donors – Individuals
8
0
Number of Max $ Donors – Unions
0
4
_
Percent from Max ($5000) Donors
31%
20%
_
Donations From People With The
Same Surname As The Candidate
I put the larger number in bold in each row but there are places where some might feel that having a smaller number is actually preferable – for example, Ryan’s average donation is lower than Trent’s which likely indicates more grassroots support (even with Meili having more large donors as well – see below for more thoughts on that.)
I really wish that I’d found one more person to make a donation as Ryan ending up at 666 will probably make some jerk try to insinuate that Ryan’s in league with the devil or something! 😉 (The graphic at the top of this page shows 664 donors but the official numbers from the Sask NDP says 666 so I’m going with that.)
So many factors are hard to assess – one of the biggest ones is what this chart might look like if Meili didn’t have a one month head start in the leadership race?
It’s also impossible to say how things would be different if Wotherspoon had accepted Meili’s early challenge to do a “test run” of the party proposal to eliminate corporate and union donations, only for this internal leadership race and which is something Wotherspoon spoke in favour of as Acting Leader of the party:
“Saskatchewan’s democracy should be for Saskatchewan people, free from questions of influence from corporate or union donors, and not for out-of-province companies looking to pay-to-play,” Wotherspoon said. “It’s long past time for Saskatchewan’s elections laws to be brought up to date. The introduction of the bill is that first important step.” – Sask NDP Press Release
But you can also see why Wotherspoon may have been reluctant to forego donations by unions and corporations since Meili has raised nearly double what Wotherspoon has from individuals alone and every single one of Wotherspoon’s max donors (so far) is a union, not an individual.
With that said, it’s also clear that there is a bit of income inequality (heh!) between Meili’s supporters. One Wotherspoon supporter observed that Meili got a large amount of his donations from just eight people giving the max allowable ($5000) and honestly, if it was me making that observation, I’d have gone further and pointed out it’s even more lopsided if you include “near max” donors – for example, there are actually eleven people who gave over $2500 and together, they account for around 40% of Meili’s donations.
But as with everything in this race, there’s two ways to tell the story – for example, Wotherspoon supporters have frequently cited Trent’s ten years of experience as one of his biggest strengths but Meili supporters might counter that means Wotherspoon also has ten years’ of baggage during a pretty rough period in the party’s history. Similarly, when a Wotherspoon supporter criticizes Meili for getting a large percentage of his support from a handful of donors, a Meili supporter might turn it around and ask why Wotherspoon hasn’t been able to find a single individual to donate the maximum to his campaign when Ryan has found 8 (and basically, 11 if you count “near max”?) I mean, $5000 is a lot of money but it’s not outrageous either. Saskatchewan MLAs make $96,000 as a base salary and many get more for additional duties they fulfill. But not one of Trent’s MLA colleagues who is supporting him is willing to max out? Trent might not have a bestselling author supporting him like Ryan does but not one of Trent’s 439 donors is well-off enough to make a five grand bet on their man? Even the candidate himself hasn’t come close to maxing out his contributions to his own campaign whereas (and here’s that “two sides of every story” thing again) where Wotherspoon supporters somehow see Ryan (and his family and friends) putting a lot of their own money into Ryan’s campaign, I see that as people willing to invest in a candidate as heavily as they can, especially knowing he won’t be able to rely on union or corporate donations for their big money injections like his opponent has.
Another way to analyze this – if you take the max donors off both people’s lists, Meili’s average donation falls by $63 while Wotherspoon’s falls by just $47, indicating that overall, Wotherspoon is actually *more* reliant on people giving bigger sums whereas Meili gets a lot more smaller donations which likely means more grassroots support. (Another easier way to show the same thing – the list of the names of donors for Wotherspoon is 17 names longer than Meili’s.) And if you take away “near-max” donors from both, the discrepancy is even larger.
Not to belabour the point but it’s somewhat rich (ha!) in my view for Wotherspoon supporters to imply Meili is doing something untoward when people are allowed to – and then do – donate up to $5000 under the rules, just as Wotherspoon’s decision to step down as Acting Leader and run for the permanent job was also seen by many as unsavoury, even if allowable under the rules. Pot. Kettle. Black. and all that. 😉
Final thought on this point – I included a count of how many people with the same surname donated to each candidate – Ryan had donations from 3 and Trent from 4. I put an asterix because Ryan’s wife has a different surname than him (a wise choice for many reasons, not least that “Mahli Meili” sounds more like a tongue twister or a character in the Marvel Universe!) So again, charges that one candidate is getting out-sized support from his family seems overblown.
When challenged about accepting corporate/union donations, Wotherspoon has responded that the NDP needs all the support it can get to prepare to battle the Sask Party in 2020 when corporate/union donations will likely still be permissible. But the five Sask Party leadership candidates raised over one million dollars – an average of more than $200,000 each (and closer to $250,000 each if you discount the low final total from Tina Beaudry-Mellor) – in their leadership contest. The Sask NDP race has just over a month to go but our candidates have only raised an average of $117,000 each and again, Meili is far ahead, even without relying on union or corporate donations. As Ryan said at the last debate, “The Sask Party has the numbered corporations and we have the numbers.” To put it another way, unions will definitely have a role to play but it’s ultimately, people – unionized or not – who are going to propel the NDP to victory in the next election (and I say that as a strong union member!)
It’s also a bit misleading to imply that Wotherspoon is the only one getting union support. Even though he’s not accepting their monetary donations, Ryan is still getting support from unions – for example, he was endorsed by the UFCW which is the largest private sector union in the province. On top of that, there are numerous union *members* who are donating to Ryan’s campaign as individuals or endorsing him. To take a personal example, both Shea (SUN) and myself (CUPE) have donated to Ryan’s campaign (not as much as last time, true, but do you see that “holiday countdown counter” in the top right of this blog? That’s where our political donations are going this year!) Lo siento, Ryan! 😉
That brings up an interesting point as well – some unions are very politically active such as CUPE while others choose to remain non-partisan such as SUN. So that means that some unions might end up having more influence on a candidate, directly or more subtly, which is a big part of the reason that some want to get corporate and union donations out of politics all together and leave it to individuals.
It’s mostly irrelevant since lots has changed in four years (Meili is now an MLA, this race only has two candidates instead of four, etc.) but it’s interesting to note that Meili also beat Wotherspoon in fundraising by more than 25% in the last leadership race in 2013. Fundraising obviously isn’t the only important factor when choosing a leader. But being able to amass a big war chest, especially against an opponent who dominates in fundraising, mostly via big corporate donations from within and outside the province, is going to be critical for the NDP to succeed in 2020 and beyond. To put it another way, the fact that Cam Broten raised significantly less than both Meili and Wotherspoon in 2013 should’ve been a big red flag to NDP members about Broten’s ability to generate funds for the party going into the last provincial election. That didn’t happen and the party ended up making minimal gains and the leader ended up losing their seat. 🙁
Again, tonight is the last night to donate and be counted in the January financials *and* it’s also your last chance to donate $50 to receive a free copy of Ryan’s book. You can easily donate $5 or $50 or $500 on Ryan’s web site.
[Edit: Dammit! Literally two minutes after I hit “Post”, the Knights scored two goals ten seconds apart and my ha-ha funny joke about them being so good they even tie games they’re actually losing due to an ESPN typo is meaningless. And now, as I’m typing they’ve now scored an empty netter – 4-2 Knights is your final score.]
The Vegas Knights are so good this year, they’re even tying games that they should be losing! 😉
(If you’re missing it, look really closely at the time and scoring report for the first two Vegas goals.)
