When something is going through exponential growth, even in the early stages, most people completely underestimate how quickly things are going to change, even when the exponential growth has been going on for quite a while.
Some humans are really bad at understanding math.
I started this blog in 2006 when I was doing my Master of Library Science degree at the University of Western Ontario.
I started this blog in 2006 when I was doing my Master of Library Science degree at the University of Western Ontario.
6,920 posts and 3,356 comments since 2006.
Comments 1
This is actually why I’m fairly optimistic about beating global warming. If you look at renewable energy and electric vehicles and such, pessimists are always saying things like, for all the vaunted growth in solar panels, they’re still a very small percentage of total energy use, and there are still lots of coal plants being built in India and China and whatnot. It’s like, even after years of increases, there are still not enough renewables installed every year to take up the whole of China’s economic growth, let alone start seriously reducing China’s emissions. Oh no!
But the thing is that renewables have been ramping up at an exponential rate (and it’s a significantly bigger exponent than the general economy’s growth). If that continues, in a few years they’ll suddenly eat the economy and not only all the small “c” conservatives but also everyone who doesn’t understand exponential growth will be taken by surprise.
(Population growth and economic growth are still a problem, mind you)