I recently had a very interesting conversation with a high-level supporter of another Sask NDP candidate.
I made some comment about the NDP being in a great position to renew itself with all of the great young candidates that are running. He replied something along the lines that “only your candidate is talking renewal.”
That took me aback a bit, I have to admit.
After all, the NDP suffered its worst defeat in a generation during the last provincial election. So I think renewal/rebirth is a natural course of action. And that informed my reply when I told him “If a candidate isn’t talking renewal for the party, I’m not ranking them on my ballot – period!”
But in contemplating what he said, I think there’s perhaps a bit of truth in that there’s very clearly a range of how much renewal each candidate will represent for the party should they be chosen as the next leader.
I would rank it as follows, from least renewal to most:
LEAST
Trent Wotherspoon – as sitting MLAs, both he and Cam Broten have very similar profiles and at some level, are going to represent the least amount of change on that basis alone. But as I’ve noted in previous posts, Trent is also the only leadership candidate who supported Dwain Lingenfelter in the 2009 race. So even if Trent is talking about party renewal this time around, I think his actions speak louder than words and it’s somewhat disingenuous if he’s asking for party renewal in 2012 three short years after he failed to recognize that need in the last leadership race. A related fact (again which I’ve mentioned on this blog before) is that Trent has the support of many party insiders who supported Link last time as well – which also speaks more to status quo than change.
Cam Broten – like Trent, Cam is a sitting MLA and that inherently represents a bias towards the status quo. Further to that, although he didn’t support Dwain Lingenfelter in the 2009 race, by supporting Deb Higgins, another long-time MLA instead of throwing his support behind one of the bright young lights of the party like Yens Pedersen or Ryan Meili who had chosen to put their names forward, he was showing a bias towards maintaining the status quo rather than a desire for real renewal when it was most needed and would’ve arguably put the party three years out of the hole it currently finds itself in.
Erin Weir – Erin represents real renewal for the party in a number of ways – both as somehow who isn’t currently part of the party establishment and also as the youngest candidate in the race as well as someone who hasn’t lived in Saskatchewan for a number of years (although keeping his eye on his home province very closely, I’m sure.) But he also has deep roots in the party which mean he’s not the candidate most representative of change (which in many ways makes him very intriguing as a potential compromise candidate.)
So in terms of who represents the most change, that would be…
Ryan Meili – Without question, Ryan represents the biggest chance the party has to renew itself. He doesn’t have a long history with the party (which I know many long-time members see as a weakness but given a) how politicians, left or right, are regarded in general by society, and b) how the NDP are regarded in the province right now, that’s actually a strength as far as I’m concerned.) Beyond Ryan’s lack of a long history with the Sask NDP, he has a proven track record of reaching out to others to create new coalitions – whether as a driving force behind the inter-disciplinary SWITCH program at the U of S or with the number of new members he brought to the party in 2009 – skills which would serve him well as leader trying to renew and expand a party that’s somewhat damaged goods right now. Again, you may disagree but I think we need that type of broadening of the party in the worst way right now and I think Ryan’s easily the best positioned to accomplish this.
You’re probably reading this and thinking I’m dismissing the other three and holding up Ryan as some perfect choice for the party. In a weird way, I think it may be the opposite.
In my view, Ryan’s the right choice. But he’s got probably the biggest hurdle in front of him to make this case to others who will be voting for leader. Even with the debacle of the last provincial election, studies have repeatedly shown that people are naturally resistant to major change – even when they should know better – and this leadership race could end up being another example of that.
Ultimately, it will all come down to how much the party membership realises they need to change – if they feel the party just needs to tweak itself, Trent Wotherspoon and Cam Broten are well positioned. If they want a bigger shift, it could be Erin Weir. And if people are really willing to look at the possibility of a wholesale, ground-up, massive renewal effort (which is what I think the colleague who I mentioned at the start of this post was implying Ryan represented that the other candidates didn’t), then Ryan’s your guy and Bob’s your uncle!
