Head Tale

I went to a noon hour presentation at the Johnson-Shoyama School of Public Policy on “The BC Election and What It Means For Saskatchewan“.   One presenter got a good laugh off the bat joking about how he had to tear up his speaking notes in light of the stunning come-from-behind victory of the Liberals after all pollsters (including internal polls for both Liberals and NDP) were predicting an NDP victory.

Here is a partial and incomplete list of reasons why the NDP (may have) lost, not all of which may have been covered in the presentation:

• Voter turnout was low
• Voter turnout was high among demographics who skew towards the Liberals (older, more affluent)
• Low information voters believed the Liberals’ lies more than the NDP’s lies
• The NDP had more baggage from the 1990’s than the Liberals had in the 2000’s
• Adrian Dix had a lot of baggage/wasn’t trust-worthy
• Adrian Dix is a lifelike robot
• The NDP ran a terrible campaign that ran out of gas in the end
• The Liberals ran a great campaign that peaked at the right time
• The NDP were over-confident and not only measuring drapes for the Premier’s office but looking ahead to how to win their second term
• Pollsters are increasingly irrelevant and shouldn’t be listened to until they somehow modernize their methods (same thing happened in Alberta where a Wild Rose landslide was predicted yet Conservatives won)
• The Liberals ran attack ads and were very negative
• The NDP ran a “Jack Layton-lite” campaign, positive and restrained when politics in BC has always been more of a bloodsport
• Christy Clark won the televised debate which was a major turning point in the Liberal comeback
• Christy Clark practices witchcraft
• The Liberals cheated/somehow stuffed ballot boxes across the entire province
• The NDP didn’t provide a solid contrast to the Liberals
• The Greens stole votes from the NDP
• The Conservatives didn’t steal votes from the Liberals
• The “Liberals” in BC are really a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives which reduces vote-splitting and means the NDP has to beat two aligned opponents rather than win a three-way race
• The Liberals won the exo-suburbs
• Voters were drunk on Okanagan wine
• Disenchanted Liberal voters didn’t park their protest votes with the Greens
• Undecideds usually break 50-50 in the end.  This time, they appear to have broken nearly 100% for the Liberals.
• The Liberals owned the economy and pocketbook issues
• Low information voters thought Christy Clark was the daughter of Glen Clark and that she *was* an NDP candidate
• Pipelines and natural resources are vital to BC”s economy and the Liberals had better policies in this area
• The HST debacle wasn’t really that bad
• The NDP platform played too much to groups who would already vote for them
• Christy Clark ran a red light with her daughter son and a journalist in the car thus somehow proving she’s more connected to “real” people
• Social media (which the NDP dominated) doesn’t win elections
• Adrian Dix was a terrible leader
• People prefer a charismatic communicator like Christy Clark rather than a boring policy wonk like Dix
• Seven of the eight last provincial elections have been won by the incumbent party

So, in summary, nobody – including pollsters, pundits or politicians – knows what the hell happened in BC yesterday or why! 😉

By way of comparison, the Maple Leafs also lost a heartbreaking battle to a last-minute, come-from-behind surge that nobody saw coming earlier this week.

Here is the full and complete list of reasons the Leafs became the first team in history to lose after having a three goal lead in the third period of a Stanley Cup playoff Game Seven:

• The Maple Leafs suck